The Ultimate Forbidden Fruit
1881 Financial Predictions For The World
( Inclusive of S&P 500 NDX100 Stocks )
November 12 , 20
By Vincent Lee Jia Qing
Wealth Warning : Eating the Ultimate Forbidden Fruit may make you Seriously Rich.
Ultra High Finance For Ultra High Net Worths
& Hedge Fund Managers
Smashwords Edition 1.0, July 2009
Visit http://www.dealingmachines.com
Copyright © BrainCapital Technologies (S) Pte Ltd
This book is dedicated to
Dr. Gerald Chan ,
Dr. Bill Fung
And All My Hedge Fund Clients
“ FANTASTIC !
…If there ever is an Oriental Alchemist of Finance , David Lee certainly qualifies as one .
His Volatility Models are believed to be more than 70 percent accurate , I personally found them to be even pin point accurate and hugely profitable .
In the last few years , when many models fail , Braincap Volatility Models held up spectacularly well .In Sept 4 , a long call in Hang Seng Index till September 11 2009 was worth more than a 1000 points .
His 2 Black Swan Events highlighted in the Training Seminar book in July and August 2009 did spectacularly well . It turned 10c to 2 dollars within days .
His Basic Models have been well researched and supported in many scientific journals , namely when people buy , they do slowly as greed slowly creeps in . But when they do sell , they do in great Fear and HUGE volatility .
David Lee 's Contribution to the Financial World is to use Maths to detect spikes in Volatility as sell Signals and slow drops in Volatility as Buy signals . He found a way to quantify these signals and lay them over a 21 year track record to show a upward sloping equity line .
For that , I salute him . “
… Product and Book Review by David LCH , CEO , Hedge Fund Manager
Introduction
Introducing DealingMachines For Banks, Hedge Funds and Program Funds. Powered by Hybrid Neural Nets Technologies and Fuzzy logic, It can make a Billion Computations to give you the Best possible price Scenarios. When all agree, you can be sure that it is the best way to trade the market.
Used by One of the Top Program Traders in the World and a select list of MNC Foreign Exchange Banks, this Technology is now available for use on the mobile platform for Iphones and Blackberry .
History
The history of BrainCapital technologies has its humble beginnings in 1988 . David Lee secured a Singapore Merchant Banking Scholarship which led to stints in Goldman Sachs New York and trips to Chicago Trading Houses . This helped to incubate an idea to develop a machine driven program-trading software for foreign exchange.
David with help from scientists came up with the first version a couple of years later and subsequently in April 1993, made a presentation of the model and findings at the SECOND ANNUAL INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE APPLICATIONS ON WALL STREET. The underlying pattern recognition technology has undergone much refinement ever since.
Between 1993 and 1997, the software was used extensively by program traders at Hong Kong Bank, Swiss Bank Corp and BHF Bank.
Subsequently , a governmental grant and venture capital group funding by Boston based VC followed in 1998 .
Since then , Braincapital technologies has been used by several MNC banks and also a Top 10 program trader who traded 12 percent of stocks on the NYSE. The technologies use state of the art artificial intelligent technologies like neural nets , fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms . Through millions of computational intensive mathematical calculations , the technologies output a 6 step best scenario for each individual stock , bond or currency .Statistically , it can be verified that the technologies has a 65 to 80 percent accuracy rate of predicting price momentum ( speed of trend ) for intraday , daily and weekly time spans. Viceroy International Limited in 2002 completed the 100 percent buy back of BrainCapital technologies .
The Rationale for Predicting Price Patterns.
To develop the perfect Stock Market Machine May be an impossible task but with better technologies and mathematics , we can strive for the next best thing .
Towards this , we develop our serving infrastructure and breakthrough BQT ™ technology to continuously search for price patterns within the worlds Top 1001 Stocks and changed the way stock markets analyses are being conducted.
From the beginning, our developers recognized that providing the fastest and most accurate results required a new kind of rigorous approach that is highly robust and can withstand the most stressful periods of market trading .
To do this , we maximize the use of today ‘s high speed computers and use more than 200 signals in our (patent pending ) BQT ™ algorithm . Patiently , all 1001 Key Stocks of the World are put through our pattern recognition machines and analyzed individually
The importance of each prediction signal generated is then cast as an Independent Vote . And as all the Votes are independently generated and gathered from 1001 stocks worldwide , the Summation of all Signals are collated and considered to have greater value than each individual prediction signal . It is the Summation of All Prediction Signals that then leads us to conclude the future state of Equity Markets World Wide for the next 9 days .
And Thus , we coined the phrase : Heaven Markets for UP Markets and Hell Markets for DOWN Markets . In principle , this methodology is similar to the methodology Google uses in its PageRank Search Algorithm that has made it the world ‘s most successful search engine .
We have always taken a pragmatic approach to help improve pattern recognition search quality and create useful products and our technology uses the collective intelligence of the world 1001 stocks to determine the future state of equity markets worldwide .
The life span of a Prediction Signal may take less than half a second but it involves a million calculations drawing multiple variables from momentum , stochastic , relative strength , time window space and trend .
This kind of detailed , high speed computation and accuracy is only made possible by Today ‘s advances In Technologies and Mathematics.
Forbidden Fruits in the Garden of Eden
By Anonymous Artist
The Forbidden Fruits of Finance :
1881 Financial Predictions for The Entire World
The predictions cover stocks from Asia , Malaysia, Jakarta, South Korea , Taiwan , Latin Americas , Mexico, Brazil , Canada Toronto, China Shanghai, India NSE , Hong Kong , Australia and including 800 US Listed ETFS , ^NDX 100 and S&P500 Index stocks , the Most Important Stocks in the world .
The S&P 500 Index represents 500 of the largest companies designed to give a big picture view of the US stock market. About $1.5 trillion in investments mirror the moves of the S&P index and 4.9 trillion in investments are measured against it .
True Secrets of Predictions .
Quantifiable over 20 years of Market History .
When 3 Predicted Lines stick together and lie parallel in ONE LINEAR DIRECTION . That is a Prediction , Highly Probable and most likely to come true .
We Offer this Highly Valuable Consultation Service to Hedge Funds and High Net Worth Players Mainly. The Service includes a predicted Look Forward Graph showing 3 Independently Generated Scenarios of a Stock Chosen by the Client . When the 3 Scenarios coincide , stick together and lie parallel in ONE LINEAR Direction , we know that it is a highly probable pattern and likely to come true . This prediction is then measured and balanced against the Intermarket Analyses of the Volatility Indexes and Overall Prediction Score for 1001 Stocks within our universe.
In Reference to the Prediction and Probabilities Rating , we use
Criterion B and Criterion C to measure Look Forward Scenarios .
Criterion B Predicts for the first 3 to 6 days with a Probability Ranking using U to represent UP and D to represent Down .
Criterion C Predicts for the first 6 to 9 days
For Up Predictions , Highest Probability Ranking is 100U for 100 UP . Lowest Probability Ranking is 16 U .
Similarly for Down Predictions , Highest Ranking is 100D for 100 Down . Lowest Probability Ranking is 16 D
We advise to concentrate on Stocks that have Probability Rankings that have a minimum level of 33 U or 33 D . We found that when Probability ranking is higher than 33 percent level , the probability of a profitable trade is more than 66 percent and the Equity Line is a lot smoother for Signals with Higher Probability Rankings.
So if both Criteria B and Criteria C are U for UP , then it is a highly likely that the price would be UP . Similarly if both Criteria B and Criteria C are D for Down , then it is highly likely that the price would be Down.
If Criteria B is Up and Criteria C is Down , then it is a A shaped pattern going up for first 3 to 6 days and then coming down from 6 to 9 days .
If Criteria B is Down and Criteria C is Up , then it is a V shaped pattern going down for first 3 to 6 days and then coming down from 6 to 9 days .
KEYS to PREDICTION: Look Forward Scenarios
Graph below shows a Highly Probable UP Prediction .
Notice the 3 Predicted lines of 6 points stick together and lie parallel with each other . These are the characteristics of a Highly Probable Prediction .
Graph below shows a 6 DAYS UP Pattern superimposed over 9 DAYS actual price INCREASE for the VXO Volatility Index (^VXO)
Notice the first 3 points of the yellow , maroon and blue lines coincide together and seen as 1 single line .
Graph above shows a 6 DAYS DOWN Pattern superimposed over 9 DAYS actual price DECREASE for the Dow Jones Index (^DJI)
This pattern is deliberately chosen to depict a LESS Probable Down Prediction . Looking at it , one can decipher that it may be a Less Probable Pattern to come true as the 3 Predicted Lines do not Stick together and do not lie Parallel with each other .
Nevertheless , with the Verdict at 33 D , and its 3 Criteria A , B and C all showing Down , the prediction Still Came True .
Notice both Predictions for the DJI and VXO agree with each other from 4/11/2008 . The rule in the market is when Volatility increases , the Market Drops .
Track Records Over 20 Years : What have we learned .
The Perfect Hedge is a Long Equity and Long Volatility Portfolio .
It produces a Straight Equity Line over 20 years with Low Drawdowns and High Hit Rates for Long Equity and Long Volatility Signals .
Even In the Most Volatile years of 2006 to 2009 , Applying the Same Principle of Long Equity and Long Volatility Produces Superb returns in excess of 20 percent each year with Low Drawdowns.
And Rates of Returns Far in excess of 20 percent each year over 20 years.
Yellow Equity Line Below shows a Combo of Both Long and Short Positions for DJI and VXO . Blue Line shows Long Volatility and Long Stock Position . Red line shows Short Volatility and Short Stock Positions .
As far as Possible Try to Impose a Minimum Threshold level for Trading Signals . That is trade Only when Criterion B and Criterion C Probabilities Rating are above threshold reading of 33 U or 33D .
When we apply this rule to VXO and DJI , the Equity Line is a lot more smoother which means Lower Drawdown of Equity and Higher Leverage can be applied . Please refer to following Equity Line below .
Refer to the Graph above , using VXO Volatility Index ‘s Criterion C as a leading Indicator over the DJI , the Decision is to go Short Volatility as Criterion C shows 33D for Volatility Index ^VXO . This decision coincides with Go Long for Dow Jones Index as Criterion C for ^DJI is 44 U .
So How do we Trade Volatility ?
Fortunately there are 49 Highly correlated Ultrashort ETFs to choose from ,
Please see table below :
Top 20 Positively VIX Correlated ETFs
In Ascending Order of Correlation .
Name Symbol
ProShares UltraShort Semiconductors SSG
ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas DUG
ProShares UltraShort Technology REW
ProShares UltraShort Financials SKF
ProShares UltraShort Consumer Goods SZK
ProShares UltraShort Basic Materials SMN
ProShares UltraShort Consumer Services SCC
ProShares UltraShort SmallCap600 SDD
ProShares Short SmallCap600 SBB
ProShares UltraShort Industrials SIJ
ProShares Short QQQ PSQ
ProShares Short Russell2000 RWM
ProShares UltraShort QQQ QID
ProShares UltraShort Russell2000 TWM
ProShares Short MidCap400 MYY
ProShares UltraShort MidCap400 MZZ
ProShares Short Dow30 DOG
ProShares UltraShort Dow30 DXD
ProShares Short S&P500 SH
ProShares UltraShort S&P500 SDS
The Ultimate Forbidden Fruit :
Financial Predictions for November 12 , 2009
REVELATIONS :
Summary Prediction Score for Heaven and Hell Markets , November12, 2009 :
184 UP Stocks vs 249 Down Stocks
Prediction Verdict : November 12 2009 for Next 9 days …
More Hell than Heaven…
Equity Markets Looking to GO DOWN .
End Result : We Shall See …
Intermission
My Idea of Measuring Heaven and Hell Markets
is inspired by William Blake who wrote The Marriage
of Heaven and Hell.
Here , the material world of physical desires share equal parts .
with the divine world . Heaven and Hell reside together.
Blancpain, ‘s 1 Million Dollar Watch.
No, It does Not Foretell the
Future Either .
Summary of Training Seminar :
How to Trade like a Successful Hedge Fund Manager
and Build a Successful Track Record .
Please contact dealingmachines@gmail.com for event details ,
(Pricing : 900USD 1 full day training seminar )
Timing is EVERYTHING
Train and Trade like a Real Hedge Fund Manager .
When to be Fearful when others are Greedy
When to be Greedy when others are Fearful
Dehumanise the trader .
Be a Hybrid Half Machine Half Human Trader .
Throw away charts as they cloud your thinking .
A billion Calculations to make a buy sell decision .
Ying and Yang , quant and quality ,
Quantitative and Qualitative .
Visually looking at Volatility .
Looking at 1000 stocks in 1 second .
Jim Symons Renaissance Technologies : String Theory and Fractals .
Volatility as a fractal , Intraday , daily , weekly .
When all the stars align , 1000 stocks , or 3000 stocks , 3 volatilites , 49 ultrashorts ,
Hedge : Long and Long : long volatility ( buy puts ) and long stocks .
Macro Hedge Funds : from stocks , to Cash Bonds to Oil to currencies
Basic Building Block is Volatility and 1000 stocks from Russell 1000 .
Being 65 percent sure vs 90 percent sure .
Always in the market verses blue moon markets.
Puts , Calls , Ultra Long Ultra Short ETFS , SDS SSO , Warrants Hang Seng
Joining the Hedge Fund Industry
Portable Inheritable ALPHA for Hedge Funds
Quant Track record is Portable and Inheritable .
BQT Quant Models
Using a Hybrid of neural nets , fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms , the technologies generates millions of calculations and predict periods of rising Volatility before they happen .Statistically , it can be verified that the technologies has a 65 to 80 percent accuracy rate for 9 week and 9 day models .
Transparency of Quant Models .
Traders and users of Quant models know that there is clear transparency in Quant Models . We know exactly , What we did , When and Why .
Keeping it Small and Confidential
Client details and trades are kept strictly confidential .
Ranking Table for Next 9 DAYS from November 12 2009 .
Criterion B shows Prediction and Probability Ranking For Next 3 to 6 Days .
Criterion C shows Prediction and Probability Ranking for Next 6 to 9 Days
Symbol From Level Criterion B Criterion C
^AEX 317.06 N 33 D
^BSESN 16696.0293 N 50 D
^DJA 3438.53 16 D 50 D
^DJC 131.47 33 D N
^DJI 10197.4697 N N
^DJT 3937.8401 N 50 U
^DJU 370.69 66 U 50 U
^DWC 11161.5996 N 50 D
^FCHI 3808.0701 N 33 D
^FTSE 5276.5 N 16 U
^FVX 2.26 N N
^GDAXI 5663.96 N N
^GSPC 1087.24 N N
^HSI 22397.5703 N 33 U
^IIX 223.41 N N
^IRX 0.05 N 66 D
^IXBK 1560.64 50 U 16 U
^IXF 1907.6899 N 50 D
^IXFN 3555.9399 50 D 50 D
^IXIC 2149.02 N 16 D
^IXID 1654.74 N N
^IXIS 3412.51 N N
^IXK 1094.5601 N N
^IXTR 1847.59 N N
^IXUT 208.65 16 D 50 D
^JKSE 2420.28 N N
^KLSE 1271.75 N 16 D
^KS11 1572.73 16 D N
^MID 691.44 N 16 D
^N225 9804.4902 N N
^NBI 808.35 N 16 D
^NDX 1773.14 33 U 33 D
^NY 5041.3501 N N
^NYA 7063.0498 16 U 16 D
^NYI 5244.3999 N 16 D
^NYL 5216.6899 N 33 D
^NYY 5150.7002 N N
^NZ50 3172.0801 N N
^OEX 505.45 N N
^PSE 826.23 33 D N
^QQV 21.46 N N
^RUA 632.43 N 16 D
^RUI 594.7 N N
^RUT 580.32 N 16 U
^SML 307.68 N 16 D
^SOXX 314 N N
^SPSUPX 247.47 N N
^SSMI 6355.7998 N N
^STI 2726.24 N 16 U
^TNX 3.45 N 50 D
^TWII 7670.9302 N N
^TYX 4.39 N 50 D
^VIX 24.24 16 D N
^VXN 24.05 N 16 U
^VXO 23.22 N N
^XMI 1129.3199 N N
A 27.43 N N
AA 13.2 N 16 U
AAPL 201.99 N 66 U
ABC 23.98 N 33 D
ABK 0.74 50 U N
ABT 53.23 N N
ACAS 2.77 N N
ACE 51.58 N 33 D
ACS 54.9 N N
ADBE 35.61 N 33 U
ADI 27.4 16 D N
ADM 32.25 N N
ADP 43.32 50 D 33 D
ADSK 26.98 N N
AEE 25.4 N N
AEP 31.39 N 16 U
AES 13.06 16 D 16 D
AET 29.31 N 16 U
AFL 44.09 N N
AGN 59.47 33 U N
AIG 36.26 66 D N
AIV 13.28 50 D 33 D
AIZ 31.58 N N
AKAM 23.68 N N
ALL 28.86 16 U 16 U
ALTR 20.79 83 D 100 D
AMAT 12.82 16 U 16 U
AMD 6.48 83 D N
AMGN 55.22 N 33 U
AMP 38.43 N 16 U
AMT 39.42 N 33 D
AMZN 130.53 N N
AN 18.36 66 U N
ANF 36.76 N N
AOC 40.12 83 D 50 D
APA 97.95 N N
APC 62.55 N N
APD 82.53 50 D 50 D
APOL 54.54 N N
ASH 36.61 33 D 33 D
ATI 32.24 N 16 D
ATVI 11.44 16 U N
AVB 72.32 N 16 U
AVP 34.47 83 D 16 D
AVY 38.69 33 D 33 D
AXP 39.5 N N
AYE 22.43 16 U N
AZO 144.19 16 D 33 D
BA 50.28 16 D N
BAC 16.06 16 D N
BAX 54.76 N N
BBBY 36.98 33 D N
BBT 24.8 N 16 U
BBY 41.84 N 50 U
BC 11.66 50 D N
BCR 80.16 66 D N
BDK 61.83 N 16 U
BDX 72.2 N N
BEN 113.92 N N
BHI 41.43 N N
BIDU 427.15 N 16 U
BIG 25.28 50 D N
BIIB 46.5 N N
BJS 18.97 33 U N
BK 27.3 N 33 D
BKF 45.58 33 U 33 U
BLL 49.94 N N
BMC 38.34 N N
BMS 28.18 N N
BMY 23.12 N 16 U
BNI 97.99 N N
BRCM 28.41 N 16 U
BSC 10.4 N 16 D
BSX 8.19 N 16 U
BTU 43.39 N N
BXP 64.49 N N
C 4.06 50 D N
CA 21.77 66 D N
CAG 22.21 N N
CAH 30.97 33 D 33 D
CAM 39.8 50 U N
CAT 58.57 N N
CB 50.31 N 33 U
CBE 42.18 N 16 U
CBG 10.61 16 U 16 D
CBS 12.81 33 D 33 D
CCE 20.14 N N
CCL 31.38 33 U N
CCU 38.64 N 16 U
CEG 32.11 N N
CELG 53.73 33 D N
CEPH 58.84 16 D 16 U
CERN 79.28 N 16 D
CHK 24.71 N N
CHKP 31.97 33 U 16 U
CHRW 57.69 16 D 33 D
CI 30.22 N 16 D
CIEN 12.28 83 D 33 D
CINF 26.1 N N
CL 80.5 N 16 U
CLX 59.71 N 33 U
CMA 27.99 N 33 D
CMCSA 15.33 N 33 U
CME 315.14 100 D 50 D
CMI 46.61 33 U 16 U
CMS 14.11 N 16 D