The cliché is “Give a man a fish, he eats for a day. Teach a man to fish, he eats for a lifetime.” The following pages will teach you how to win your fantasy baseball league year in and year out.

As Fantasy Sports has grown as an industry over the past ten or so years, it has become more and more evident that there are a ton of individuals who think they know what they are talking about. If you take a look through Facebook, Twitter, and an average “fantasy sports” Google search, you will find thousands upon thousands of groups, sites, and people who want to sell you some sort of list, some sort of ranking, or some sort of help that will get you “over the top” in your fantasy league. It’s tempting to reach out to every single one of them, assuming they all know more than you do.

Rarely do any of these sites or people deliver on their promise. Rankings are often too generic and projections mean very little without the background data that was used explained and in full view of the user. Finally though, here is a change. Joe Pisapia has created a new way of evaluating the players in your league and is providing you with real ways to get better at drafting, managing your roster, and working transactions.

I’ve known Joe for over 15 years and have been in fantasy sports leagues with him for over 13. He is consistently one of the top finishers of all the leagues we participate in. So you can rest assured that he not only talks the talk, but he also walks the walk. He is providing, in the following pages, methods that he himself has used to produce great runs in Fantasy Baseball year after year. He is meticulous in his approach and he holds himself fully accountable for all advice he provides to friends or strangers. It also seems he is on to a breakthrough for fantasy baseball research.

Joe has taken the generic, and often woefully subjective rankings systems provided by thousands of websites and magazines, and thrown them to the curb. In creating the Relative Position Value (RPV), Joe has allowed the average fantasy player to create their very own, customized tiers and rankings with ease. No longer will you have to rely on a list of the “top 30” players at each position. You can now do the rankings yourself and be assured your numbers care more about your specific league settings rather than what some random website says.

Then when your draft is done and you are ready to make some moves, he gives you some easy ways to make sure you are getting the best value out of your free agent pickups and your trades. I’ve watched for years as Joe has been on the better end of a vast majority of the trades he makes and it all boils down to simple and easy to follow criteria for making the moves. Joe makes it extremely easy to understand his philosophy and how to apply it across all league types and scoring systems.

In going head to head with Joe every year, I’m well aware of his skills in this realm. This book will help you better understand fantasy baseball and will help open your eyes to new ways to craft your roster and lineup.

Introduction

Fantasy baseball is important. It has become an integral component of the baseball landscape. It has helped to educate many fans on the nuances of the game and its statistics. It has also created a new generation of baseball fans who have knowledge of teams and players that was previously held only by the most diehard of fans. Fantasy baseball has changed the way we watch the game and how the game is covered and broken down in the media. But fantasy baseball is most important because it gives us all a chance to dream. A chance to pretend in a world so often filled with stark reality. It is an escape for some, an outlet for others, an obsession for many. It is a way for people to stay close to friends and family despite physical or emotional distance that may lie between them.

For me, fantasy baseball started as a challenge and quickly became a passion. The continuation of the game I loved growing up. A reason to stay involved in the daily box scores with the same fervor and excitement I had as a child. Even without fantasy, I would still be the guy watching the Reds play the Giants on a random August weeknight having no stock in the outcome whatsoever. With fantasy baseball in the mix, I get the added attraction of watching Pablo Sandoval go 3-4 with a double and two RBI.

Growing up in New Jersey, I remember fondly taking my complete sets of Topps® baseball cards and reordering the league with re-drafts from scratch as if I were a young Kennesaw Mountain Landis given full reign to fix America’s Pastime. Each player finding a new home, which most likely was born out of my desire to improve the NY Mets squad I was forced to watch in the early 90’s. Why couldn’t I do a better job than Al Harazin? What GM school did he go to? I could undo the Bobby Bonilla signing or the trading of David Cone. What a baseball utopia I could create. Little did I know, this training would serve me well in the years to come.

I am well into my second decade as a fantasy enthusiast (addict would be more specific, but enthusiast sounds much more appealing, no?) I have played in big money leagues and no money leagues and don’t seem to be able to differentiate. I take great pride in them all. Points leagues are my personal poison and I am of the firm belief that rotisserie leagues are too pedestrian. The head-to-head weekly points battle breathes a different air than the category stacking rotisserie brand. But don’t despair roto friends, I promise to put our differences aside and help the roto player as well.

Although the glory of winning a fantasy league is exhilarating it is somewhat isolated. There are no champagne celebrations or post game interviews. The real reason why fantasy is so important to me is that for 7 months out of the year it keeps my friends and I connected. Some live in Iowa, Connecticut, Washington, Philly, others 10 minutes from my house. Life can give you a lot of reasons as you get older to not stay in touch. The one constant for our crew has been Fantasy Baseball. So we decided to do a keeper league a few years back so that way we have fantasy 365days a year! What could be better?

I stumbled into covering fantasy baseball for a few different websites as I entered my late 20’s. It was more or less another way to indulge myself and perhaps make some extra cash on the side. I was even part of a trade evaluation council on a site where we passed judgment on over 1000 trades on one season! I spent a lot of time (too much probably) on fantasy sites always looking for an edge or something new that would challenge my ideas on the game or improve my “fantasy game”.

In recent years, I found myself disenfranchised with the state of fantasy baseball coverage. It seems that there are so many “experts” with agendas who really never hold themselves accountable when they get it wrong (which coincidentally they do more often than an “expert” should, I promise should I be so blessed to produce a 2013 edition of Fantasy Baseball Black Book I will hold myself accountable for better or worse). They also drown themselves in predictions and projections instead of breaking down and laying out strategies for success. Then there are the other extremists who deal with sabermetrics so dense it will make your head hurt. I felt the need for a balance between the world of statistical analysis and practical strategy was grossly overdue.

My goal with this work is for it to be your true fantasy baseball guide in every sense of the word; the one that teaches you how to find the answers for yourself. I cannot draft for you when your number is called or tell you when to pull the trigger on that big deal, but I can help you devise a working strategy that will lead you to success. Hopefully the philosophy I have developed based on my own experiences can help you shortcut some of the trial and error process. However, there is no crystal ball to predict the bounces of the ball, nor is there a way for you to avoid blood, sweat and tears if you are truly dedicated to building a winner.

Major League Baseball has taken a huge step over the last decade by using sabermetrics and statistical analysis to revolutionize how they approach the assembly of a team. Basically what fantasy players have been doing since the inception of Strat-O-Matic®. The GM’s that have found a balance between metrics and old school scouting have had the most success; the pairing of paper and eye. However, in fantasy we far too often neglect the intangibles of players: their mental toughness, hustle, physique, environment, maturity etc. A player is defined by his numbers, but he is so much more than numbers on a page. We lose ourselves in the stats and fall victim to overlooking the other elements that go into building a winner. I believe the combination of the two schools of thought in fantasy is the secret to dominating the landscape.

You will note in my player review sections that I will not be giving you projections. Projections are nothing more than fodder that can lure you into a false sense of security or hope regarding a player’s potential performance no matter how sound the calculations may be. Even the best forecasters are doing just that…forecasting. It is still not an exact science even in the era of sabermetrics. That is the beauty of baseball. You can boil the game down to the most intricate statistical formula you can dream up that will assuredly predict an accurate outcome and the game will turn you inside out at the drop of a Roy Halladay curveball.

Instead, I will give you rankings, reviews and reasoning.

If you want all the work done for you then go to the many fantasy sites that attempt to do so and hand over your money to your league commissioner. Just be aware you will not be seeing a return on your investment. Independent thinking is the path to success. There is no substitute for hard work. If you are not willing to put in the extra effort and independent thinking then you can’t expect to be competitive. Worst of all you are missing out on the fun of fantasy; the fact you are in control. I want to make you the fantasy GM you always wanted to be and the perennial winner you dreamt of becoming. I have tried to be simple enough for the novice player and challenging enough for even the saltiest veteran. So without any further adieu…let’s play two!

--Joe Pisapia

{NN} NN or “Novice Notes” will appear throughout for those who are just coming into the fantasy baseball wars.

1. Understanding Your League Format

No matter how much you prepare, no matter how much you study, no matter how hard you try you are doomed to fail in fantasy sports if you don’t fully understand the format of the league you are playing in. What good is it to own Roy Halladay in a league that only runs out 3 pitchers at a time? Why bother collecting closers when saves are worth 3 points? And what sense would it make to take Pujols first in a league with just ten teams when you know the tenth first baseman on your depth chart will be able to put up a 30/100 season and give you 90% of the same production? Knowing your league format inside and out and exploiting it is the way to rise to the top. Every league, whether it is plain vanilla or incredibly intricate, has loop holes that you can use to turn the tables in your favor. You just have to know where to look.

The Big Two

Rotisserie Is For Chickens

There are countless quirky fantasy baseball league formats. Just when I think I’ve seen it all someone will email me for help in a league with some stat so insane I thought the league was invented by Bill Veeck or Bill James. If you don’t get those references then Google them now and start to learn more about the sport of baseball. Despite the myriad of structures the main two formats are rotisserie leagues and points leagues.

Rotisserie or “roto” league for short was developed by Daniel Okrent, Bill James and a bunch of baseball writers and fanatics. {NN Called Rotisserie after the restaurant they congregated in (La Rotisserie Francaise) to field their teams and no doubt try to assert their dominant baseball knowledge over one another. Hence our game was born} This format basically consists of drafting a team of pitchers and hitters and competing n categories. 5x5 roto leagues for instance count average, home runs, RBI, runs and steals on the offensive side and wins, strikeouts, era, whip and saves on the other. Each owner’s team gets points for where they rank in each category and whoever finishes with the most points wins. There are many, many variations here: 6x6, 8x8 I have even seen 10x10 where they count some very wacky stats. Some replace batting average with on base percentage some add quality starts you could fill a book with the little nuances, but I won’t. The point is, if you are going to start or join a roto league, try to find one that suits the style you prefer. This is supposed to be fun remember?

My biggest problem with roto leagues is that they are just too easy. I am in no way saying that I am some genius who never lost a roto league, but I have won many more than I have not, whether they were ten or twelve team leagues 5x5 or 6x6, or head-to-head, or what you will. The very first fantasy league I ever did was with ten guys from college who had been doing fantasy leagues since they were kids. I was winning by so much that by Sept 1st the commissioner just wrote me a check (and let me reiterate these guys were no baseball punks who didn’t care, quite the contrary.) I spent a decade away from the roto format then got roped into some “expert leagues” representing websites I worked for, going against other “experts” the last few years. STAT LINE: Three seasons, five leagues, two championships, one second place finish, one third place finish and one injury riddled finish. {NN No matter how well prepared you are or how much you pay attention injuries can ruin any season.}. Roto is easier than most other formats, though it often requires a large amount of patience with players who are slumping which is something many people lack. The adage is usually correct that players play to the back of their baseball card, but in the middle of an 0-25 stretch it is the rare owner that will have the patience to keep that player active long enough for the week he goes 15-25.

I’ve never cared for math, but I do like counting money. That pursuit led me to spend a little time looking at the numbers and inspired me to create as close to a magic formula to winning roto leagues that exists. I call it “the base line for success” and here is how it works.

Let’s say that in your average 10 team league the winning totals for the offensive and pitching categories are:

RUNS 1,050/HR 280/RBI 1,050/SB 185/BA .280

W 100/K 1,300/SV 115/ERA 3.20/WHIP 1.20

For hitters, your goal should be to find players at each position whose stat lines fall around 280BA/80R/21HR/80RBI/14SB. That is the stat line produced when taking those winning totals and averaging them out over 13 offensive players (most standard formats you play C(2)/1B/2B/3B/SS/CIF/MIF/OF(4)/DH or Utility. It may sound easier said than done, but far from impossible with proper analysis, draft preparation and the use of RPV (which we will get into later).

On the pitching side usually you have 9 pitchers active so you should be looking to draft a staff that produces 11W/144K/13SV/3.20ERA/1.20WHIP per man, or better. Now obviously this line does not compute here as you will have a mixture of relievers and starters so you need to find 115 saves between 2-3 closers or setup men (3 closers saving 35 games or so will get you to the mountaintop). With those spots taken by relievers, you really require six starters to eat get as close to 15 wins and 150 strikeouts as you can to achieve the totals you will need to win. Playing 3 closers is a plus in these leagues because since they appear less and only throw and inning at a time their WHIP and ERA will tend to be lower. Some leagues have “innings limits” on pitching staffs so that can be very tricky when managing your team but is not something to be fearful of, you just have to play matchups and keep a close watch.

If these stat lines seem mediocre, well you are right! What type of player fits this mold? Ladies and gentlemen I give you Hunter Pence…

Hunter Pence’s 3 year average coming into the 2011 season was: .277/82/25/82/14

Pence is far from a mediocre player. He is a solid major leaguer with good speed, good pop and a decent hitting eye at the plate. He is not a franchise player and will never be one. He is however, what you are looking for to win in roto leagues. Hunter gives you a little bit of everything, but nothing too spectacular. He is the “Pence-mark” by which roto players are measured.

The issue here is finding “Hunter Pence” at catcher and in the middle infield. That search is significantly harder and brings to the table the age old argument of Position Scarcity. Do you draft a Robinson Cano before Joey Votto or Matt Kemp? Yes. Winning in roto is based off of this theory. The average 10-12 first basemen and third basemen will hit for more power and drive in more runs than the higher end middle infielders. Therefore, if you have those key players at tough positions (eg. Troy Tulowitzki, Cano Dustin Pedroia), you can always draft Freddie Freeman or Billy Butler at first base. They are just two of many guys at first and outfield who will be able to reach the “Pence-mark”. The 15th second basemen will not be able to make up that difference and instead will drag down your team totals.

The catcher spot is the worst of this animal since there are so few good offensive catchers to start with, they get injured frequently and they only play 5-6 times a week (most will sit day game after a night game). If your league plays two active catchers grabbing an elite one is an absolute must and it is better to be on the front end of the draft run, than left out. Power is what you need most from them (average is not as important so don’t let a .240 number scare you away, 20 homer power is essential). If every team starts two catchers that equals 20-24 catchers in play every week and there are only 30 MLB teams and only half have viable offensive catchers. The data is simple so don’t ignore the tools of ignorance. Power behind the plate is a huge advantage. If you have Brian McCann and Carlos Santana you will not only drive up your team “Pence-mark” but you will also weaken the catcher pool in your league significantly at the same time.

Conversely, every MLB team has three outfielders they start in a game, that equals 90 total in the talent pool while only 40-48 will need to be fielded in your league plus maybe another 10-12 at most to fill the Utility slots only half of the talent is being utilized and outfielders tend to have more power and speed, so consider them second class citizens come draft day. You have to build your roster from the inside out if you want to set yourself up for success. Start with the best at the worst positions and then gradually build into your corner infield slots and outfield. Grabbing one very good outfielder is smart to do before they are all off the board. But whatever you do, don’t start taking Jimmy Rollins over Joey Votto. That is just plain stupid. You do however want to take Troy Tulowitzki over Joey Votto though, since 30/100 shortstops are practically extinct. The balance of when to take the best player on the board and when to take the best player available is a delicate one we will delve into later in the book.

Some owners love to pile on and draft a bunch of speedy guys or homerun bats and dominate in a few choice categories, but this is not a sound long term solution. It requires you to be able to move the excess during the season to become competitive in other categories. Not only do you have to be able to make a deal, but you also need to bring back equal value which can be difficult. Piling is risky and requires outstanding relationships with fellow owners and an excellent feel for when to jump horses. The other problem with piling is that if injury should strike your top power guys and you are power stacked, you could be left in the dust.

It is good advice to have a top stolen base threat in your draft plans, along with a few big power arms and bats but try not to go too heavy to one side. Making trades can be tough in these leagues so if you think you are going to get a huge lead then sell your strength to fill other holes, you may find yourself behind the 8-ball come trade deadline. Try to amass guys who can contribute across the board as much as possible and you will have a more stable season. If you play the waiver wire carefully and make a few key trades you can improve on an already solid base and make a serious run at a title.

Remember, a” Hunter Pence” at each position will serve the overall bottom line…winning.

Points Leagues

Where Champions Are Born

There is a stigma that fantasy baseball is not exciting. There are too many players, too many games and not enough fantasy action. This is due largely to roto style leagues dominating the landscape for the better part of three decades. However, there is a cure and it is call the Head-to-Head Points League (or H2HPL). Much like the wildly successful NFL fantasy football format, this style pits two teams against each other for a week at a time and has them battle it out head to head for bragging rights. There are point values assigned to each offensive and pitching statistic of note and you are playing against an opponent (or sometimes more than one at a time), as opposed to climbing a statistical leader board one stolen base at a time. This format allows for greater drama and excitement and the wonderfully necessary element of being able to start over every week with a fresh outlook and a new lineup. H2HPL’s also allow for dynamic playoff systems and gets you much closer to the feel of operating your own franchise. You suffer the wins, losses, hot and cold streaks, injuries and call ups a bit differently than your methodical roto league. H2HPL in my mind is the quintessential fantasy baseball league format.

After years of using different statistics and points values I believe this to be the most optimum point value if you are running a points league:

Offense:

Single 1pt, Double 2pts, Triple 3pts, HR 5pts, R 1pt, RBI 1pt, SB 2pt, CS -1pt, Batter SO -1pt, Batter BB 1pt, Grand Slam 10pts, Cycle 20pts, Muti-Hit Game 1pt

Pitching:

Win 10pts, Loss, -5pts, Save 7pts, Blown Save -5pts, Quality Start 5pts, Hold 3 pts, Strikeout 2pts, BB -1pt, Earned Run -1pt, Complete Game 10pts, Shutout 10pts, No Hitter 25pts, Perfect Game 50pts

This format took some tweaking over the years to refine but what it does is get you as close to the feel of “real baseball” as you can get. Batter and pitcher points will be comparable with the edge to pitching just like in real life. Leagues that weigh too heavily in offensive points and belittle pitching are far too simple for the average owner to excel at and you miss out on the roller coaster of great and terrible starting pitching performance that will give the league much more fire.

Some leagues shy away from negative statistics (eg. batter strikeouts being -1pt) and this is a huge mistake. If Ryan Howard strikes out with the bases loaded does it not negatively impact the Phillies? Then shouldn’t it affect you fantasy team in a similar fashion? Of course it should! Negative points will affect a players overall value as well as his week-to-week value. Prolonged slumps or 3 strikeout nights can really take its toll on a roster and undo a lot of your other player’s good efforts. It throws a nice wrench into things and challenges owners and that is a good thing. If a format is too simple it will become boring by midsummer and people will lose interest. So “negatives” in this case are actually a positive.

I also turn my nose up to the enormous “bonus” leagues like 100 pts for a no hitter. One player’s great performance should weigh heavily, but it should not overshadow the entire opposing roster. It is one performance, albeit a great one, it is still one and needs to be properly designated a value.

My pitching values also dictate that a good pitcher on a bad team should not be penalized since after all fantasy baseball is about a collection of individual performances. The “quality start” is a much maligned stat. Six inning pitched allowing 3 earned runs or less breaks down to a pitcher with a 4.50ERA (hardly a Cy Young candidate). However, in fantasy it does have merit as it offsets a great pitching performance that ends up as a loss due to poor team support. The more teams in your league the deeper the pool you draw from and you need to make quality pitchers on bad teams viable for the good of the league, especially since wins can be arbitrary. Saves are also a stat that needs to be measured carefully. They should never outweigh wins, but a blown save needs to carry as negative an impact as it does in real life to make bullpens important. Holds are a category that you can play around with as well depending upon the depth of your talent pool and Baseball is starting to value these middle men more, so fantasy leagues should take notice and adjust accordingly. I also like restricting active pitching rosters to mandate a certain number of relievers and starters being used. It controls the free agent pool and allows individual owners to craft their own strategies. Start six pitchers and require at least one starter and one reliever. Open the door for creativity and style.

The real key to winning a H2HPL (after a good solid draft) is lineup management and it all starts with the Two Start Pitcher Rule. If your schedule runs Monday to Sunday then you have a chance to field your lineup with a C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, (3) OF, DH, 5 starters and 1 reliever. You need to maximize those five starters. Having Justin Verlander for any amount of starts is a great asset, but when you get to the back end of your rotation you need to have bench depth to plug in viable pitchers who have multiple starts in a week. They have the opportunity to raise your point total and provide you a team win. I use the word viable here, because a poor choice in a pitcher with two starts can have twice as negative an impact on your week. So monitor matchups, home/road splits and all other information carefully before making your choices. Playing multiple closers is a calculated risk since there is a chance they could see a lot of action in a week or none. I have seen some success with this gamble in the regular season, but no one has really made it work through a playoff run in my experience. It is simply too volatile.

With hitters use the same concepts. There are max seven games in a week and sometimes as few as five. Catchers will play a max of six so having a catcher who DH’s or plays another position or best of all qualifies at catcher and now plays another position fulltime is your best bet to score more points. It is all about opportunity. Speaking of opportunity, it is worth noting that leadoff men will get 5-10 more at bats a week which are more opportunities for points. Where a player hits in the lineup will certainly impact your offensive fantasy numbers and top half of the lineup guys will see more RBI opportunities, more runs scored and generally will outscore the bottom half of the order especially in the NL. You have to also pay close attention to matchups. Some hitters can’t touch lefties, others struggle on the road. You need to do your homework and many sites nowadays do it for you so take the time and study. Platoons are death in head to head leagues, so try to focus on securing everyday players even on your bench. Again it is about setting yourself up for success. The more bullets in the chamber every week on both sides of the ball, the better chance you give yourself to do damage.

Note: I prefer the H2H leagues where you play one team at a time with the occasional double or triple header, but some leagues where you play against 5 teams in week kill the drama for me personally and waters down the excitement of the fantasy showdown.

Variations on a Theme

The Hybrid

The new fashion is the head-to-head roto league where you square off against another team once a week but rather than individual players earning you points some genius devised a version where instead you battle over categories in a week and whoever wins the most categories comes out the victor. I have played this format once and I can tell you it is an improvement on regular roto style, but a far cry from H2HPL’s and similar to the alcoholic drinking an O’Douls. Just make the clean break and realize a better existence is in front of you. The best thing you can do here is use a hybrid philosophy, meaning play your matchups carefully and craft your lineup carefully each week. At the same time use the roto draft style I laid out previously since you are trying to win categories. Balance is paramount.

AL/NL Only

There are some leagues that lock you into AL or NL only talent pools. Usually they are formed out of only having 8-10 owners or a group looking for an odd challenge. The big issue here is when players change leagues there is usually some funky “secret bidding” system to obtain the deadline deal player changing hands. Conversely you can lose your best player to a trade in “real” baseball and have it ruin your season. Neither of these options are great and the restrictions usually end of restricting the fun long term so avoid the” ONLY” leagues when you can.

If you find yourself stuck in one of these the best thing you can do is adhere to the “position scarcity” draft theory since you are dealing with half the teams you would in a mixed league. You may be stuck dealing with some platoon situations so look for the left handed bat here since they tend to see more action and usually have better power numbers. In AL versions do your best to grab elite pitching since ERA’s will tend to be higher so the best guys are more valuable.

Keeper Leagues

Now we are cooking with gas! There is no better way to lose oneself in the lofty dream of being a baseball GM than the keeper league. They come in all shapes and sizes from keeping one player to a whole roster. Some hold minor leaguers and major leaguers, some have contracts that determine how long you can hold a player and others have salary restrictions. Whatever you chose keeper leagues are great fun and the pinnacle of fantasy baseball indulgence. I prefer the small limited keeper leagues of 3-5 players that allows for turnover year to year and makes a dynasty tougher to hold onto (again as close to the “real” thing as you can get.

When choosing players in a keeper league it is essential to take into account the following: track record, age, potential, the player’s circumstances (ballpark, team, contract status etc), position and make-up. There is a certain amount of forecasting that must be done when it comes to keeper leagues if you are going to maintain a strong core of players on a year to year basis. It is far from an exact science, but projecting success is how you achieve an advantage in this format so let’s take a look at each of these elements that create the decision process.

Track Record: The numbers a player produces year over year are usually similar, henceforth the phrase “playing to the back of his baseball card”. There will be the up years and down years but most of the time a .260 hitter is a .260 hitter and a .300 hitter is a .300 hitter. Players coming off of an aberration year are dangerous on two accounts. First off, the player that hits 40 homers after never reaching 30 in a season should give you pause when selecting keepers. Yes, Jose Bautista had a breakout year out of virtually nowhere a few seasons ago, and yes he did have a nice follow up campaign, but more often than not these unexpected peaks especially later in careers will usually come crashing down the following season. Take a player like Dan Uggla who is a 30/100 lock at 2B every season and is a career .250 hitter. In 2010, he peaked with a .287 BA then crashed to .233 in 2011. You should not have expected him to build off of 2010 and exceed his .877 OPS. But you should also not think that just because he had a bad first half after signing a big contract in 2011, that Uggla is a .764 OPS guy either. Take a step back and look at the big picture. His track record is 5 consecutive 30 homer seasons with about 90 RBI and runs scored. Lack of track record is what makes keeping young players so difficult. Until a player has exposure to the big leagues his production will most likely be volatile, which brings us to our next point…

Age: The younger the player the bigger the risk…the risk of failure, the risk of injury the risk of disappointment. Baseball players tend to peak between the ages of 26-31. Roy Halladay (over) and Justin Upton (under) fall outside of this range and are obviously keeper worthy talent, so there are exceptions to the rule, but generally speaking building a core of players in their prime is the safest and smartest way to give yourself a base. This will in turn allow you to take risks on older or younger players in the draft without living and dying on their performance.

Potential: You have to constantly be looking to the future in a keeper league, while trying to win now. Trading potential talent for proven talent will always get you further into the fantasy championship range especially when young talent cycles over every year and new faces are available to add for the future. Overvaluing prospects will keep your team in perpetual rebuilding mode and you will find yourself on the outside looking in. Potential does have value but you have to maintain a healthy disrespect for it and instead focus on track record. When it comes to established players be sure you are creating a winner for the upcoming season, not the one you just played. That is a common pitfall. If you build a team off of last year’s numbers only you will fail. You have to combine past production with potential production in order to give yourself the best opportunity to field a winner. Potential is very important and is impacted greatly by a player’s circumstance…

Circumstances: Players on free agent years tend to have career years more often than not. Players who land big contracts sometimes have trouble living up to them. If you don’t think so, just look at Carlos Beltran (twice! 2006 and 2011), Jayson Werth etc etc. These guys are the poster children for this adage. New York can be a tough transition for a player. A move to a bigger ballpark can hamper an offensive season or a whole team when a new ballpark is unveiled. You need to do your homework and take all of these factors into account. And don’t forget the player who stays put and loses his support. We shall see in 2012 what Ryan Braun is made of once Prince Fielder is gone.

Position: At risk of sounding like a broken record, position does matter. You don’t take Asdrubal Cabrera over Miguel Cabrera, but you have to factor in a position when ranking players and deciding who to keep.

Make-up: The biggest mistake you can make is thinking that stats are everything when it comes to fantasy. Players that play hard, hustle and grind it out will give you that extra point or extra run every week and that may make the difference between a win and a loss. Players who have questionable ethics, addiction histories, mental health issues and attitude problems will always at risk for poor performance, suspensions and missed time. All of this can lead you to the cellar in your standings. Miguel Cabrera has had alcohol issues during his career as well as weight issues. I would still draft him over Paul Konerko who is squeaky clean and very productive because that is a risk I am willing to take and Cabrera is an MVP caliber talent, but it is a no brainer to take Pujols over Cabrera based on makeup. You are investing in a person, not just a player so remember they are more than just numbers especially in keeper leagues.

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Table of Contents

Foreword