Extinction Event
Nicole Stuart
Copyright Caravan Publishing 2011
Published by Caravan Publishing at Smashwords
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This is a work of fiction. Although the underlying events are based on situations, events and facts that are true, the characters and events are entirely fictional and have no relationship to real persons. Any similarity or resemblance to such persons is accidental and not intended.
Chapter 1
The Earth was a pleasant place. The climate was mild, and the forest bountiful. The small tribe sat peacefully next to the campfire at the edge of the forest. The hunt had been successful, and each member of the small group had a portion of meat and some fruit and berries on the palm leaf in front of them. They ate their meal unhurriedly. Although there were threats to their lives, they had these mainly under control, and the campfire kept most of the possible predators at bay. The fire was a treasured item. Captured from a brush fire started by a lightning strike, it was carefully tended, and, when the tribe moved to a new location, it was carefully carried in a basket of green twigs and thick leaves.
Occasionally, the members of the tribe would steal a glance at the unusually bright body in the heavens. They were careful not to stare at it, uncertain as to whether it might take offence at being looked at too boldly, or, perhaps, at being ignored.
The Leader cocked his head, then, with a curt gesture, silenced the limited discussion. All listened carefully for the sound of danger that had prompted this silence. The Leader had proven many times that he had an uncanny ability to detect the strange or unusual against the constant buzz of sound from the forest, and, in so doing, had saved his small tribe from disaster more times than they could remember. His warnings commanded the attention of each member of the group, from the oldest to the youngest. The lessons of life in the Stone Age were harsh, and quickly learned.
The low rumbling came again, barely above the limit of audibility. The Leader listened anxiously, trying to determine the direction from which the sound emanated. A look of comprehension touched his face. He knew the sound. He knelt to the ground, placing his hands flat on the soil. The others in the group realised what the sound foreboded, also knelt to feel the vibrations of the soil. Their attitude was almost one of supplication. Perhaps this was the message that the bright heavenly body brought!
They could not know that the bright star in the sky was a huge comet, a lump of rock bigger than the highest mountain on this young Earth, rapidly approaching Earth’s orbit and creating gravitational stresses that shifted the tectonic plates and opened a path to the molten lava kilometres below the ground. Water from the subterranean lakes gushed through the openings, flashing instantly into superheated steam, and building enormous pressure.
Suddenly, there was a sound, louder than any they had experienced before, and they knew that the vibration was the sound of the Earth Goddess expressing her wrath. They had witnessed this before, at a distance, and knew that there was no fleeing. If the Earth Goddess wanted to take them to Her, She would do so, regardless of what they did. They looked questioningly at the Leader, then, before he had any time to formulate a response, to give reassurance or warning, the forest was uprooted, taking the trees and the pitifully small group of humans several kilometres into the sky. They died quickly, before the wave of superheated air and ash from the explosion of Toba had time to reach and vaporise them. They, together with thousands of their kind living in small communities over a wide area, simply ceased to exist.
The explosion of Toba, the largest volcanic event experienced during the time of humans on Earth, ripped away hundreds of square kilometres of earth and rock, incinerated it and flung the resulting ash, the large and small boulders, and microscopic shards of lava tens of kilometres into the sky, causing a huge bulge in the atmosphere, and virtually destroying the island of Sumatra that the growing volcano had built over aeons. The enormous sound of the explosion was audible hundreds of kilometres away, and the shockwave was felt on distant continents.
The volcano continued to erupt for several weeks, at times gently, with small bubblings of lava and eruptions of gas, ash and smoke, and, at other times, massively, with cubic kilometres of rock being hurled skywards. The cloud of ash drifted downwind for thousands of kilometres, taking with it a cloud of sulphur in microfine dispersal. The ash rained down on the suffering Earth for more than five years, burying thousands of square kilometres of fertile land underneath a layer of fine ash more than three meters deep in places. Those humans and animals on the Asian sub-continent that did not die from the superheated air or burial in ash suffered an agonising death. Their lungs were lacerated by the ingestion of the lava which, as it cooled in the air, crystallised and became effectively glass dust. The cloud of sulphur, mixed with water in the atmosphere to become sulphuric acid, forming an efficient mirror in the upper atmosphere, reflecting the light and heat of the sun away into space. The uprush of air and matter in the explosion dragged in millions of cubic kilometres of air, much of it drawn from the upper atmosphere, reducing the temperature dramatically. The Earth cooled rapidly. The water in the atmosphere precipitated at first as rain, causing flooding over vast areas, then, as the Earth cooled, the moisture started to fall as snow, drifting to the ground, covering the brown and green Earth in a mantle of white, then rapidly building up in drifts. This reflective surface added to the reflection of the sun’s heat into space, accelerating the cooling process.
The acid mirror remained in the upper atmosphere a long time, until after the cooling of the Earth had become irreversible, then slowly drifted down to ground level, increasing the acidity of the soil where it landed, and destroying what vegetation remained in its path. By then, the cold had done its work, and the Ice Age had begun anew. The acid slowly leached down into the ground, converting many minerals into sulphate forms, which slowly neutralised its acid content. Tens of thousands of humans died, taken unaware of the build-up of pressure in the magma cavern below Toba, or the extent of that cavernous bed. The instability in the Earth’s crust caused by the titanic explosion, compounded by the rapid redistribution of loading on the Earth’s crust, as the seas evaporated and the water vapour settled in layers of snow and ice reaching thicknesses measured in kilometres in some areas, created a new instability in the continents floating on their bed of molten magma. The pressure of this mass of frozen water had an effect on the tectonic plates, and resulted in several “aftershock” eruptions of other volcanoes throughout the world over the succeeding centuries, but the extent of the damage caused by these was mild in comparison with the initial event. Most of these volcanoes were located in the Northern Hemisphere, and this damage was a precursor to the devastation that was to come as the climate changed. In some cases, it allowed humans and animals to survive and to flee to a more hospitable area before their world became uninhabitable, but the numbers of these fortunate souls were small.
As the volcanic onslaught rumbled down into the eerily silent Ice Age, the few remaining humans looked for new homes, new hunting fields and, in many cases, new ways of coping with a totally new set of conditions, to start the long, slow process of rebuilding their previously idyllic lives. This process consumed the better part of the following five thousand years, before the Gardens of Eden that humans had previously occupied once again started to open their gates to Mankind. These early humans had the major advantage that they retained many of their previous skills, most of which remained appropriate for the new world facing them. They conserved many of these skills and put them to use in rebuilding the population of their kind as the Earth returned slowly to the benevolent Mother that she had been.
The explosion of Toba had the effect of setting back the development of humanity by more than ten thousand years.
Chapter 2
John looked out of his tent towards the mountains, topped by a sparkling blue sky. This was his second day at Yellowstone, and he was starting to unwind. It had become a custom for him to visit Yellowstone to relax, starting in his early childhood, when his father, a Judge, had taken his wife and his young son to the wilds to “come down to Nature”. His father had always used the word “Nature” with a capital letter. The trips, taken every year, had usually been relatively short – seldom more than a week at a time - but they had served the purpose of consolidating the familial bond between them. John remembered the long lazy days, full of interest and excitement, and he had continued the custom after his parents had been killed in a car accident during his second year at University.
Although he had dated a number of girls during that time, John had never brought one of them with him on these trips, and lately he had been fully involved in building up his fledgling IT company. Now, he had achieved his objective, and sold the company to one of the ‘blue chip’ corporations that recognised the brilliance behind his concept, and considered itself unable to provide the entrepreneurial expertise necessary to take the idea to the size John had achieved in just seven years. John had signed away the shares in his company in exchange for $247 000 000 in cash, and rewarded himself for the hard work with a two week vacation, alone at Yellowstone, while he considered what he wanted to do next.
‘Time to get up and start the day’ he murmured to himself, grinning at the thought that, after just five days of retirement, he had slipped far enough to start talking to himself.
He reached into his tent and grabbed his toilet bag. His bath towel was hanging on the washline he had rigged, drying out after his evening shower and collecting the scent of the outdoors. John glanced around the campsite, seeing that there was only one other tent pitched there, a short distance from his own. The motorhome that had been parked between them yesterday had obscured his view of that site, but it had pulled off shortly after sunrise, leaving just the two small tents in the treed campsite. John stood, and strolled towards the ablution block. As he did so, the other tent was zipped open, and a young woman emerged, obviously heading in the same direction.
“Good morning” she called, waving briefly to him.
“And to you” he replied. “It looks like a great day.”
“It’s always a great day here” came the reply, surrounded by a friendly grin. “I love this place. It brings me back to reality.”
They reached the ablution block together.
“Are you alone here?”
“Yep, I’m on a sort of working holiday, starting yesterday evening. You?”
“Me too. I’m taking a break to wind down. I’ve had a busy year! Care to join me for a cup of coffee after your shower? I make the best coffee this side of Puerto Rico!”
“I’d love it. See you in a few minutes. By the way, I’m Helen.” She put out her hand. John took it, noticing the firm grip, without it being excessively hard. It was not a feminist grip.
“I’m John. That’s my tent there.” He gestured, suddenly realising the superfluity of the comment. Unless he had come from a tree, there was nowhere else for him to have spent the night.
“I guessed that. See you soon.” Helen walked into the building, a grin on her face.
*~*
John showered, relishing the warmth of the water running over him, then the sharp bite of the cold water. Summer was over, and the cold water demonstrated the cool night temperature and the slow warming during the day. He brushed his teeth and shaved, dressed in his shorts and tee shirt, then combed his short hair. He looked in the mirror.
‘Not too bad’ he thought. Over the past years his life had been too crowded with pressing business matters for him to have taken the time to look at his reflection in the mirror. He was a little surprised that his face had strengthened a little since he last looked. He walked from the ablution block to his tent, hung up his towel and stashed the toilet bag in the open duffel bag inside. He collected together some firewood, built a small stack and got a fire going.
“I see you’re a traditionalist. No propane cookers for you!” Helen had walked up behind him unnoticed.
“I think if you are camping, it’s almost profane to use propane!” He laughed. “Fact is, I love the smell of wood smoke, and the sound of a fire.”
“I do too.”
John pulled up a couple of larger logs for seats.
“Forgive the furniture. I like to travel light, so I can move around if I feel like it.”
Helen sat on one of the logs, crossing her outstretched legs as she leaned against a convenient tree trunk. John filled the coffee pot with water, added some ground coffee to the percolator, threw in a dash of salt, and placed the pot on the fire, balancing it carefully. That was the hardest part of cooking on a campfire.
“How about some eggs and bacon?”
“I’d love it. Can I help?”
“No thanks, just take it easy. I’ve got all the fixings, and I enjoy doing some real work for a change.” John reached into his tent for the food bag. He balanced a pan next to the coffee pot and poured a little olive oil into it, then added a few rashers of the bacon he had purchased on the road yesterday. He arranged a couple of slices of wholewheat bread vertically next to the fire, balancing them on twigs to keep them off the ground.
“It looks like you’ve done this before.”
“Yeah, I enjoy camping out. I’ve been doing it since I was a kid. I’d love to spend a few months just being part of the real world, living in nature and being a part of it. In the city I get the feeling that I’m a parasite on the skin of the world.” John paused a few minutes, reflecting. “Maybe that’s what I should do. I mean, get out in the wild, not be a parasite!” He looked at Helen and smiled. She smiled back. “What do you do for a living?”
“I study volcanoes. That’s my excuse for being here now. I’m doing a doctoral thesis on the development of the Yellowstone magma cauldron.”
“The Yellowstone magma cauldron?” John raised his eyebrows.
“Yes. Yellowstone is the site of one of the biggest volcanic explosions in the history of the world. It happened a long time ago, about two and a half million years, but I believe it is showing signs of coming to life again. The geysers are a sign of that. But what interests me most is the tilting of the lake.”
“Why is it tilting?”
“It seems that the lava cauldron is growing. Imagine a mushroom. The stem is the magma feed from thirty or forty kilometres below the Earth’s crust, and the top of the mushroom is the cauldron, filled with molten rock at a few thousand degrees temperature. Molten magma from deep down is rising to the surface, feeding a huge magma cauldron and causing a bulge in the part of the Earth’s crust covering it. As the crust bulges, the surface lifts unevenly. The lake just happens to be in a depression – I suppose that’s why it is a lake! - and that depression is elevating on one side. I’ve written my thesis, and this trip is to check on any further developments since I last measured the bulge. I’ve placed some GPS devices around the lake, and today I take the new readings. With luck, the rate of progression of the elevation will have continued to increase, and I can slot the figures into my thesis. That would just about wrap it up!”
“What does this all mean to me?” John leaned forward, his mind working fast.
“I said ‘with luck’, but if my expectations are well founded, it probably means that the time for the next explosion is sooner rather than later. The rate of progression of the elevation, according to my calculations, places the timing of the next explosion in the next one hundred fifty or two hundred years. That’s really bad news.” Helen looked earnestly at John, her face reflecting her deep unease.
“Why? How big will it be? I know that a volcanic explosion is a big deal, but even Mount St Helens affected only a very small area. It may be bad news for Yellowstone, but how far will the effects be felt?”
“It’s possible that the ‘explosion’ will be no more than we experienced recently at Mount St Helens, which was very bad, as modern volcanic explosions go, but it could well be several times the power of the Toba explosion. I’m talking ‘explosion’, not just eruption. It could involve the ejection of several hundred million tons of material into the stratosphere, enough to cause a small wobble in the spin of the Earth, probably changing the speed of rotation of the Earth, and certainly enough to be a life-changing event for hundreds of millions of people. Toba was the largest volcanic eruption in the history of humans on Earth. It was big enough to wipe out between 70% and 90% of the humans in Asia, and caused the world to drop into an Ice Age that lasted over five thousand years. The size of the magma cauldron is staggering! It presently contains over five hundred cubic miles of molten material!”
John forked the bacon from the pan into two metal plates he had placed on a cloth spread neatly on the grass, and broke four eggs into the hot pan. The bacon grease sizzled, and the edges of the eggs started to form small bubbles. He dropped a couple of tomato halves into the free space in the pan, then poured steaming coffee from the pot into two tin cups, and handed one to Helen.
“You’ll have to tell me more about the explosion, but, before you do, I’d like to know how likely it is to happen soon.”
“Thanks.” She poured some milk from the long-life carton into the coffee and sipped at it. “That is really good coffee. Are you just as good at cooking as you are at coffee making?”
“When you live alone, you either eat out or develop some cooking skill. Otherwise you just starve. I find that the mechanics of cooking help me to concentrate on my thinking, and, of course, I sometimes end up with a meal that I can enjoy eating.” He smiled at Helen, then raised his cup in salute. “Tell me more. You’ve got my attention.”
“My investigations parallel several other studies, and all of them point to the same conclusion. Yellowstone is going to blow sometime. The surface of the ground around the lake, which sits right on the top of part of the magma cauldron, has been elevating at six to eight centimetres per year. Until recently, that is. In the last three years, I’ve measured rates of elevation more than double that on average over the area, with point measurements of ten times that! Problem is, ‘sometime’ ranges between tomorrow and two million years from now. Vulcanolgy is not a precise science yet, and predicting something that does not happen on time can cost you your reputation, as well as your career. My estimates indicate an increasingly early date for the explosion, and I have found nothing that I can believe will cast doubt on that. I would put big money, if I had any, on sometime within the next hundred years. Lots of eminent scientists really do not agree with me – they claim that I am crying ‘wolf’ – and many others, while they agree with me in private, will not go on record to support my views. I’m only a newbie in this, so why will anyone go out on a limb to support what is really a very controversial view.” She paused to take another sip of coffee, and gestured at the eggs, that were by now approaching ‘well done’.
John slid two eggs from the pan onto each plate, and placed the toasted bread on another plate on the tablecloth. Helen put her plate on her lap, and took a forkful of egg and bacon. She reached over and took a slice of toast, spreading butter on it absent-mindedly. She took a small bite of the toast.
“Mmm. Just right. You asked what would be the effect. In my estimation, it will be just about the worst effect you could imagine. My measurements, and the best-accepted theories, show that the explosion itself will wipe out all life within at least five hundred miles of here, with falling rocks and a massive pyroplastic flow – superheated air and dust running across the land away from the caldera at near-supersonic speeds and killing everything in its path. The dust cloud, on the basis of the Iceland eruptions a few years ago, will reach into the jet stream, with fallout all over Europe, Russia and China. The associated acid gas will spread throughout the Northern hemisphere, and decrease the average temperature in the North by at least five degrees Celsius – it is believed that the average temperature throughout the world dropped by as much as twenty degrees Celsius after the Toba explosion! That’s average, not actual spot temperature! It means that the summer maximum temperature here could drop below freezing. When Toba blew, the world went into an Ice Age. I believe that Yellowstone has the potential to equal the sum of Toba, Krakatoa and all the other explosions in the past two hundred years! The magma pot under Yellowstone is over 27 kilometres by 45 kilometres horizontally, and up to 20 kilometres deep!”
“That could mean a step change in the world economy, virtually overnight! Hurricane Katrina made a big dent in the US economy, and that was quite small, compared with what you have described.” John considered what Helen had said for a while, eating his breakfast almost distractedly. “So what do you need to do to confirm this theory?”
“I’m heading out after breakfast to read the instruments. By lunchtime, I’ll have all the information. Then, this afternoon, I can crunch the numbers in my computer, add the results into my thesis, then send it to my doctoral adviser to have him check it. That assumes that there are no surprises in the readings, no changes in the trends.”
“Can I come with you?” John was almost eager in his request. “I’d love to hear more, and you can tell me on the way.”
“Of course, it would be great to have the company. And you can help me with the readings. Could I have some more toast? It’s fantastic!” Helen’s eyes showed her excitement.
“Do you always eat like this?”
“I’ve been a student for the past seven years! When do students get to eat real food? The culinary highlight of my last year was a double cheeseburger!”
“If I knew that, I would have thrown a few sausages into the pan!” John smiled at her. She was intensely likable, and her enthusiasm for her subject was catching, disturbing though the content might be. Reflecting on this, he realised that the word ‘intense’ described her well.
“You can do it for lunch! Let’s eat up, and get on our way. It gets hot here, even at this time of year.”
They finished their meal quickly, washed the dishes, and readied themselves for the walk around the lake.
Chapter 3
Helen led the way from instrument to instrument, with John walking alongside her, holding her kitbag when she knelt down to inspect the instruments. She noted each reading in a well-used leather-bound notebook. As the morning progressed, a worried frown grew on her face. Eventually John asked why.
“I can’t be sure until I process the numbers, but it looks to me that the bulge is growing at a much faster rate than my worst prognosis.” She stopped in the shade of a tree on a knoll overlooking the lake. “If you look at the shore down there, you can actually see how the waterline has moved away. I remember only four months ago that the tree over there” - she pointed to a weathered old pine tree with a thick trunk – “was only a couple of yards from the edge of the water. It’s now over thirty yards away. Look at how the trunk is leaning over.”
John looked carefully, and saw that the trunk of the tree in question was inclined at an angle several degrees off vertical. He looked at the other trees nearby, and saw that they were all leaning away from the lake. The top branches of the trees were starting to curve towards the vertical, giving the trees a windswept appearance. Helen took a small digital camera from her bag and photographed the scene.
“If you look at the lake, you’ll see that it is noticeably smaller than it used to be. You can see that by the waterline. There is quite a gap between where it used to be and where it is now. That means that the bulge is not just to one side, but also under the lake itself. That is bad news, really bad news. And look at the cracks in the earth over there.” She pointed to a long, zigzag crack running across the top of a hillock, almost parallel to the edge of the lake. “See over there, where it runs up the small cliff? That is not a surface crack! It penetrates right into the bedrock. That shows that the surface of the Earth is stretching as the rock under it is shoved up by the pressure of the magma pushing against the surface rock. When that rock breaks apart, the magma will come spouting up under huge pressure!” She looked earnestly at John, her concern mirrored clearly in her face. “Let’s get the other readings, then I can work out what’s happening.” She set off at almost a trot, forcing John to work hard to keep up with her.
The last few readings confirmed the earlier values, and, when they arrived back at the campsite, Helen immediately booted up her laptop computer, sitting in the shade of a tree between their tents. After a half hour of concentrated work, Helen motioned to John to come over to her. He did so, bringing a can of Coke for each of them. He sat on the log next to her, feeling a small thrill at her nearness as he caught a whiff of her perfume. She took her soft drink from his hand abstractedly, and swivelled the computer so that he could see the screen.
“Yellowstone sits right over a hot spot in the Earth’s crust, a spot where there is an upwelling of magma to a point closer to the surface of the Earth than normal. Hawaii is another hot spot, where the lava breaks through and causes the volcanoes. Hawaii’s tectonic plate is moving to the east, so the hot spot appears to travel to the West, causing new islands to be formed over the upwelling.” She paused, looking at John to see whether he was following her. “Now, look here. This is the profile of the land around the lake four years ago.” She traced her forefinger around the graphic display of the lake, then pointed to the table below. The column was headed ‘N-S’, then she pointed to the column labelled ‘E-W’. Her finger moved down to the two lines on the graph below, each one labelled in the same way as the columns. “I’ve taken readings every four months since then.” She touched the keyboard, and a new set of lines was superimposed on the original ones. “These are four months later. You can see how the land has lifted to the south side, and dropped on the north.” She tapped the keyboard again. A new set of lines appeared. “These profiles show a small but significant increase on an exponential, cumulative basis. Each new set of lines has moved at an increasing rate.” She tapped again, and again. “Look at the trend.” She pointed to the small graphs below the profile lines. It showed a smooth but rapidly rising trend. “The trend is clear. The rate of growth is increasing. Now look at this.” She tapped repeatedly on the keyboard, and the lines denoting N-S lifted ominously on the south end, and dropped slowly on the north end. Then suddenly both sides heaved upwards at a rapidly increasing rate. The E-W lines, which had been relatively stable, suddenly moved upwards. “This shows that the whole cauldron is lifting, not just displacing laterally. The upward movement has covered several miles in each direction from the lake. The cauldron is growing laterally as well as vertically. The cauldron is expanding, and new magma is flowing into it. Yellowstone is getting ready to blow!”
John stared at the screen, digesting the implications of what Helen was saying. His mind raced as he considered the effects of what he saw, effects that would extend far beyond the physical effects of the explosion, and his face paled.
“What will you do now?”
“I have to slot these values into my thesis, and consider what changes they make to the prognosis. It is clear that the process is speeding up, and I have to try to figure out what the time line is likely to be. Then I have to get the findings to the university, so that the authorities can be notified. We have to warn people about what is coming.”
Helen started working on the thesis document and the evaluation of her findings. John whipped up a meal of barbecued meat, baked potatoes and salad, and served it. Helen took her plate with a grin of gratitude and ate automatically, her mind fixed on the problem posed by her new findings. John cleared away the meal, made a new pot of coffee and served her a cup. She took it, almost without noticing. Finally, at five in the afternoon, she looked up from her work.
“There is no mistake. We’ve got a huge problem coming, and there is nothing we can do about it. I estimate that the explosion will come within a matter of months, at most a year, and it’s going to be a doozie.”
“Is there anything that we can do about it, to prevent it or at least ameliorate the effects?”
“Nothing that I can see. This is Nature at her worst. All we can do is get word out, so that people can evacuate the area.” Helen’s face showed her despair. John reached out and took her hand. She let him hold it, seemingly grateful for the presence of another human in her thoughts.
“What will you do?” He asked the question gently. His thinking during the afternoon had taken him far beyond the immediate effect of the explosion. He could see that the explosion could be a world-changing event, not just a local, or even US, happening.
“I can only tell people what is coming. Then any sane person will head for the hills, as fast as he or she can run.”
“Why don’t we email the thesis and a summary to your thesis adviser, and ask for another opinion. We can do that now, and follow up in person tomorrow morning.” It’s too late now to drive anywhere, but we can leave in the morning.”
“I can’t email now, because there is no internet connection.”
“No problem. I have a satellite phone, so we can hook up through it.” He smiled sheepishly. “It’s a leftover from my past life, when I needed to be available 24/7. No more, thank goodness.” John disappeared into his tent, and came out with his equipment. “Just tell me what to send and where to send it, and I’ll do the rest.”
“But it will cost a fortune!” Helen’s face showed her concern. “The thesis is over three hundred pages!”
“Let me worry about that.” John connected the computer to his phone and started the email program. “There you go. Just select the document you want to send, and hit ‘go’”.
*~*
They spent the evening in conversation, covering initially the shocking findings of the day, and giving thought to what the results were likely to be. Gradually the conversation turned to themselves.
“Tell me about yourself, John. So far, all I know about you is your first name, and that you can cook well. There must be more.”
“There is not much. I collected a degree in Computer Engineering, then set up a small business. I sold that a few days ago, and I’m now trying to figure out what I want to do next. I just don’t want to get involved in the same pressure or in such a competitive business again. Building up the business took virtually all my time for several years, and I want to start living again! I thought I might buy a farm somewhere, with a few mountains and a stream. What you have told me today basically says that that won’t be such a good idea. I was thinking of Montana.”
“Montana is definitely not a good place to be, if I’m right! Maybe a farm is not such a bad idea, because any extinction event such as I’m predicting will bring about famine on a massive scale as the Earth cools down. If that’s what you want to do, why not try the Southern Hemisphere. The further south you go, the better. I grew up in South Africa, and the Cape Province would be a reasonable bet, taking into account wind flows from an ash and acid cover perspective.”
“Sounds like a good idea. I’ve never been there, but I’ve always wanted to visit. It might be a good time now.”
“You must have sold your business for a fair amount of money to just be able to up and go like that.” Helen smiled at John.
“I got more money for it than I ever dreamed possible. I can’t understand why the buyer wanted it so badly, but I’m not complaining! My parents were killed in a car crash when I was studying, and I don’t have any close family, so I’m free to do what I please. What are your plans for the next few weeks?”
“I have to get back to the university tomorrow, and I’ll be tied up for about a week pushing the thesis as high as I can take it. I really want people to know what is coming. Then, I suppose, it’s just sit and wait. I’m a junior in the field, and everyone in authority will want to consider what I have found before they will allow publication. They’ll want to check the facts and the theory, and that will take a fair bit of time. I have a contract that prevents me publishing without consent of the university. One of the requirements of my scholarship. From experience, I’m sure that the wait will be several weeks, if not months.”
“Would you like to show me around the Cape Province once you’ve completed your work? I’ll get us an open ticket so that we can get back in a hurry if we need to.”
Helen’s face reflected her astonishment at the offer. “I couldn’t take that, even though I’d love to. It’s just coming into Spring there now, and the Cape has one of the finest displays of wildflowers on Earth. Apart from that, we only met this morning.” Helen thought for a moment. “On the other hand, it’s not every day that we predict the end of the world as we know it. OK, I would love to come, but on two conditions. First, I will repay the cost of the trip once I become rich and famous. I‘ll sell my car if I don’t, so you needn’t worry about that not happening. Second, separate rooms.”
“OK, the first condition is accepted. The second condition is what I was thinking anyway. I know I’m hard to live with!” John reached out his right hand and took Helen’s small hand in it. “We fly from New York in a week. I’ll organise your ticket there.”
Helen shook his hand on it.
Chapter 4
The next morning, John and Helen walked around the instruments once more, noting the new readings. Disturbingly, there was a perceptible change even over the past twenty four hours. The thought that volcanoes develop according to geological time scales was being abandoned here! That done, they packed their tents and belongings in their cars and headed for the airport. John had made air bookings to Sacramento for Helen and Washington for himself.
They flew out after a brief hug in the airport.
*~*
Helen arrived at the university straight from the airport, and hurried to meet with her thesis adviser, Jeffrey Corrigan, a volcanologist of some distinction and considerable influence. She had called him from the airport, and he was available all morning.
Jeffrey welcomed her into his office, and poured her a cup of coffee from his famous bottomless pot.
“I’ve glanced though your last draft, Helen. It’s good work. There is no doubt that the fundamentals are acceptable. I’m a bit worried about the final conclusion. You know how many good people have destroyed themselves by leaping to conclusions? Particularly conclusions that call for the destruction of civilization as we know it! More than you would ever imagine. I studied for my degree together with a woman who proposed a theory that was off the wall at the time. She lost her scholarship when she pushed it too hard. Her problem was that she was a woman in a man’s field, and the theory was ahead of its time. It was slammed wherever she went. She wound up working for an insurance company shuffling their statistics. Her theory was proven correct years later, but by then it had been attributed to one of our peers, who was smart enough to wrap it up as a minor modification to other work, and then developed it to the same end stage bit by bit. Very sad case. And she was not alone. There have been plenty of others like her. You must be wary of doing the same thing.”
“Have you found anything wrong with my conclusions, Jeffrey?”
“I’ve only been working on the document for a few hours. It’s over 300 pages long, you know. I need at least a couple of days to assess it meaningfully. But no, at this stage I find everything in order. I’ll be working on it quite a bit of tomorrow, and Thursday. Why don’t we meet on Friday for lunch, and we can discuss it further then?”
Helen left the meeting, feeling that she had been sidelined to some extent, but realising that what Jeffrey had said was correct. A theory that is not accepted is effectively one that has been discredited, unless some person more powerful than she adopted and supported it. It was better not to push too hard, and then have to pick up the pieces.
*~*
John flew into Washington DC, arriving mid-afternoon. Before departure, he had telephoned his old schoolmate Eric Thomson, who now worked in a senior staff position in the White House. They had always been good friends, and frequently met for lunch when John was in town. Eric had agreed to meet with John at their usual restaurant on 6th Street.
Eric was at the table when John walked in, and he rose to greet him, shaking his hand vigorously and patting John on the shoulder. John thought wryly how Eric was becoming a political animal, as he had always promised to be.
“What was so urgent that we have to meet right away, John?
“Eric, I was at Yellowstone yesterday, and I found out about something that may become a national emergency. I immediately thought that you could put me onto the right people to do something about it. I know that you are much better connected than I am, and I need to have some action pronto.”
“Tell me. I’ll do what I can,” Eric promised his friend.
John talked earnestly for the next thirty minutes, explaining lucidly the findings that Helen had made. He had spent time on the flight thinking through this conversation, and now made a presentation that was excellent, even by his high standards. Eric listened carefully, keeping his few questions to the end. He knew John well, and knew that, if John said it was so, it was almost certainly so. At the end, Eric leaned back in his seat, convinced of the content that had been presented.
“So what do you want me to do?” he asked.
“I want you to set up some meetings with people who can do something to minimise the impact of what is coming. To do that, I know that you must tell them something about what is coming. They need to know that there is a crisis of unprecedented proportions coming down the track, and they need to be prepared to act. Can you do that?”
“I can try. But I must warn you that what you have said won’t be welcomed by the people you need. If this news is published, there will be widespread panic. No politician will want to be the one to tell the people that they are all going to die next week. They need to be able to wrap it up somehow. The evangelical preachers will have a field day, telling their congregations that Armageddon is nigh! They’ll bring the country to a standstill!”
“I understand what you are saying, Eric. But we can’t wait any longer than is absolutely necessary. To evacuate the people from the surrounding area will take weeks. Just to resettle them will take months of planning. Not to talk about the dislocation of the economy, the funding, all the rest. We need a couple of years lead time to pull this off, and it looks like we have only weeks or months at best.”
“I understand, John. Leave it to me for a couple of days, and I’ll let you know how it’s going.”
John and Eric stood up to leave, each with different thoughts, but each with the strong impression that the task at hand was hopeless. They left in separate taxis, Eric to the White House to start his work, John to the airport to catch the shuttle home to New York City.
*~*
At home that evening, John got on the phone to his travel agent to make the bookings, then called Helen at her home.
“Hello.” Her voice was tired, dispirited.
“Hi Helen, its John. How are things going?”
“Hi John. It’s so good to hear your voice.” The lifting of the cloud over her spirits came through the telephone. “I met with Jeffrey. He will be looking at my thesis over the next few days, but he seemed to think that the general tenor was OK. He warned me, indirectly, not to expect too much too soon. I think I overestimated the level of interest we are likely to get. It looks like it will be a long haul to get any sort of action.”
“I found exactly the same thing here. I discussed the story with Eric Thomson, an old friend who works in the White House. His view was that bad news is no news in his circles. He seems to doubt that anyone in authority will be willing to upset the cosy gravy train they are all on, even to save their own lives, never mind the lives of tens of thousands of people.”
“I thought of that, John. Do you remember when Hurricane Katrina was bearing down on New Orleans, and people refused to leave the city. This is likely to be the same situation, only a lot worse. There will be nothing to show them that will arouse a reaction. Where will all the people go? What will they do to keep alive wherever they go? How will tens of millions of refugees be housed, fed, provided services? Have you thought about the consequences of this? If what I have said is wrong, think about the massive consequences if people believe me!” John heard the despair in her voice.
“Helen, we can only do what we think is right. You convinced me, and I believe that you will be able to convince others. We just have to try. And hope that we have the time to sort it out.”
“You’re right. What are you doing now?”
“I’ve just put some spaghetti on to cook. I’ve got some frozen sauce I made a few days ago, and I’ll heat that up. You?”
“I’ll open a can of beans. I want to work through the calculations again, to check that I have not made some stupid mistake. That would be embarrassing!”
“OK. I’ve booked the flights. You can collect the tickets at the airport. If you like, you can come up a day or two earlier, and I can show you where I live. NY can be interesting.”
“I might do that, if there is nothing cooking here at the time. I’ll let you know. Must get back to work. Thanks for the call.”
“I’ll check in again tomorrow. Bye.”
John replaced the receiver thoughtfully. He realised that he missed Helen.
Chapter 5
The next morning dawned, as lonely as a morning in New York City can be. John’s apartment was comfortable, but not palatial. He had never felt the need to move upmarket, as his home was essentially a place to sleep, eat and shower.
John looked out of the window of the eighth floor apartment, at the thousands of other dwellings just like his, occupied by so many unsuspecting people, all preparing to hurry off to work in their secure offices. ‘Not so secure, any more’, he thought, ‘not after 9/11.’ It bothered him that so many people were programmed to go to work, sit at a desk and shuffle papers for eight or nine hours, then return home to prepare for the same the next day! He shook off the troubling thoughts as he sat down to a bowl of cereal with ice cold milk. He loved the feel of the cold milk in his mouth in the morning. He started to plan. In his usual methodical manner, he jotted down his thoughts on a notepad, categorising them into Problems, Actions Required, Considerations, and Benefits/Costs. Each point was written down, followed by several lines of open space to permit additions and insertions. It had been a standing joke in his company that the head of one of the most effective IT companies used pencil and paper to plan. John liked the experience of seeing his thoughts converted to writing, and he liked the informality of revising his thoughts, scratching out a line, and appending another line or a few words in the margin. The record of the changes was also helpful, drawing his attention to his thinking steps. A computer required a more structured approach.
After working for several hours, John had a set of action plans that satisfied him. He made himself a cup of coffee while he telephoned his banks to set up meetings. That done, he called a few associates to hear what had happened during the early part of the week, while he had been in Yellowstone, but heard nothing that was of importance. He believed that he should have good information at all times, but did not concern himself with worrying about events that he could not influence, or that would likely not have a significant influence on him. After a quick lunch, he set off to the first bank.
His Investment Manager, Leigh Torrance, a woman who had become a friend after several years of helping him through the minefields of the banking world as he grew his business at an astonishing pace, met him in the lobby and walked him to her office on the second floor.
“What can I do for you today, John?”
“Leigh, I am considering making a large investment in South Africa. I’m thinking of starting a wine farm, aimed at exporting to the US. I need to have a fair amount of money available at fairly short notice to do a deal there. How do I go about setting it up?
“That’s fairly easy. Either we can set up a Letter of Credit, against which you can draw funds in South Africa, or we could arrange to transfer funds to a South African bank in your name. I suggest that the best would be to transfer the amount that you need up front, and have a Letter of Credit for any contingency requirements.” She checked her computer screen. “The South African Rand has fallen in value recently, and is just now starting to increase in value. If you transfer funds soon, you could do a favourable deal in terms of exchange rates, and we can arrange that the funds be invested by the South African bank on your behalf in an interest-bearing account. You’ll get a much better rate there than you can here at the moment.”
“That sounds good, Leigh. How long would it take to set that up?”
“If you instruct me now, I can have the funds available to you by the weekend. Is that fast enough?”
“Perfect. I’m leaving on Wednesday next week, and should be there by the following Sunday. What do you need from me?”
Within thirty minutes, John had arranged to transfer a sum of $30 000 000 to a newly-opened Standard Bank of South Africa account.
An hour later, similar arrangements were in place with his other main bank to open an account at ABSA Bank, Cape Town, with a further $25 000 000.
John’s next port of call was the South African Embassy. There he discussed his plan to invest over $50 000 000 in agriculture in the Western Cape Province, and requested a permanent residence visa. The official, a chubby, friendly man from Cape Town, waxed lyrical about the Province and its investment prospects, and assured John that the required visa would be available for collection by Friday morning. He assured John that a similar visa would be available for Helen if she would deliver her passport to the office. John had explained to him that Helen was his fiancée.
John left the Embassy, and called Helen. She answered immediately.
“Hi John. It’s so good to hear from you!”
“Hi Helen. I’m sorry to bother you during the day, but I need to get your passport and an application form to the South African embassy as soon as possible, so we can get the visa arranged. Can you FedEx it to me today? You can download the application form from their website.”
“John, I hope you won’t think that I’m being forward, but I have almost completed my work here, and I’m expecting nothing further until Monday. Rather than sitting on my hands and getting frustrated, I thought I’d take you up on your offer, and come to New York.”
John heard the hesitation in her voice.
“I’ll change your booking to get you here tomorrow morning. I can’t think of anything I’d rather do. Just remember to bring your passport.”
“That’s great.” Her relief was manifest. “I’ve got to run. I’ll speak to you tonight.” She rang off, leaving John with a bemused expression on his face.
John worked through his list of actions required, which included buying a large scale road map of the Western Cape Province, a large illustrated book on the area, and a number of volumes on volcanoes of the world. He returned home, made himself a large pot of coffee, and set to work to educate himself.
By seven that evening, John was much more aware of the subject of volcanoes. He was amazed at the amount of work that had been done on the effects of large volcanic explosions, ranging from Toba, through Krakatau to Mount St Helens, and was even more amazed at the general lack of any public interest in these geological events, which, so often in the past, both distant and more recent, had brought so much death and destruction to humanity and the predecessors of humanity.
He turned to the volumes on South Africa, and realised quickly how correct Helen’s advice had been on moving there. The global wind patterns would provide protection from most of the ash and acid clouds likely to be expelled by a large volcanic event in the Northern Hemisphere, and the developments following them would be felt much less severely so far to the south. The Western Cape Province, although affected by previous Ice Ages in the distant past, appeared to be likely to offer a sustainable existence if the Yellowstone explosion were to happen. The weather pattern brought about by the encroachment of ice in the northern hemisphere was generally more benign in that area than at other times, with slightly wetter and warmer conditions. The photographs of the scenery and the wild flowers showed clearly that Helen had not been exaggerating in her description. By nine, John closed the last of his new books, and lifted the telephone to call Helen.
Her answer came on the first ring.
“Hi John!”
“Hi Helen. How did you know it was me?”
“The phone rings differently when you call. I just knew. What have you been doing?”
“I bought some books and have been reading them. I now know all there is to know about volcanoes, ash drift, Ice Ages and the Western Cape Province. I can hardly wait until tomorrow to impress you!”
“You have already!”
“I plan to meet with my White House friend the day after tomorrow. Are you OK to come?”
“I’d love to. I’m not getting anywhere here, and Jeffrey has left a message that he’s been called to a conference out of town, so will only be able to meet with me on Monday afternoon! So much for dealing with an extinction event!”
“Do you know, Helen, I have heard the term before, but I never really appreciated what an extinction event really means. It’s frightening when you consider the implications.”
“Yes. The dinosaurs dominated the planet for 150 000 000 years, and were wiped out by an extinction event in a few years. Humanity came close to being wiped out by the Toba explosion 74 000 years ago. Almost the entire human race outside Africa was destroyed, and even a large proportion of it in Africa!”
“What frightens me is that most of humanity is now urbanised. I’ve read that about 57% of humanity lives in cities today! They do not know how to provide food for themselves, even if they were to be given the chance, which they won’t. There is nowhere to grow food in most cities. Most of the people could not build a hut! Or sew clothes, or make cloth, or store food except in a refrigerator! If the stores close, there will be no food! If the American economy were to collapse, a very large proportion of the American population would die within a few weeks! Even if they were warned about what was coming, what could they do? Ship out to South Africa or Brazil? How would so many move in a short time, and, when they arrive, where do they stay, and how do they earn an income? If they do get away, what then?”
“John, I’ve been living with the problem for the past four years, ever since I started studying Yellowstone. At first, it was simply an interesting philosophical thought, but as time went on, I found that I was thinking myself into the situation more and more. That has been particularly so in the time since we met. I can’t think of any large-scale solution. When I think of the incompetence of our Government in dealing with the aftermath of Katrina, I shudder to think of their capabilities on a scale a thousand times as big. And Katrina was an event that could have been planned for. We all know that hurricanes strike in that area, and we had over a week warning of Katrina! There is simply no answer.”
“I’m inclined to agree with you. Perhaps it will be best simply to put the information in the public domain, let the people decide what to do, and take care of ourselves.”
“You may be right, but it seems incredibly cruel, to tell them that they are going to die, and them leave them to it.”
“I agree, but what is the alternative?”
“I don’t know. …. What are you going to be doing this evening?”
“I’ll throw something together for supper, then get on the internet to see what is available in South Africa. I hope that you are right about the Cape.”
“If anything, I’ve understated it. You’ll see. I‘m off to pack some clothes, so I can be at the airport bright and early. I don’t want to miss my flight. Sleep tight.”
“You too. Until tomorrow.” John replaced the handset, and turned to his computer.
Chapter 6
Thursday morning dawned. The quality of light today was somehow different. It seemed to be warmer, more welcoming. New York City was as busy as always. John welcomed this on some mornings. The throb of the city was a real thing, able to imbue its population with the restlessness that it felt. Other mornings, it struck John as a statement of futility. He felt that all the millions of phone calls made each day, the letters written, emails sent, miles travelled between homes and offices as well as between different offices and conference facilities, would, at the end of the day, amount to little more than a burnt-out candle. Those were the days when John longed for the peace and meaning of Nature. Today was a mixture of both types.